Björn af Ugglas

I hold a PhD in Medical Science from Karolinska Institutet and a Master of Science in Industrial Engineering and Management from Linköping University. My research sits at the intersection of epidemiology and healthcare operations management, focusing on how healthcare providers can better forecast patient demand and plan capacity and staffing, and how these decisions affect access, quality, costs, and a sustainable work environment.

After graduation, I began my career in analytical roles and later took on international assignments at Dell Technologies, working with resource allocation and operations management for the public-sector sales organization across Europe. I also held leadership and program management roles spanning sales and strategy development and implementation.

After 11 years in industry, I joined the Emergency Division at Karolinska University Hospital as Director of Operations Development. I led the implementation of Lean and worked closely with clinical leaders to improve care processes and patient flows. Over the following years, I contributed to major transformation programs, including reorganization, the implementation of value-based healthcare, and the move to the New Karolinska Hospital. I later served as program lead for regional patient processes and led initiatives in demand and capacity management, workforce planning, scheduling, and worked within the hospital’s incident command structure during Covid-19.

In parallel, I completed my doctoral training at Karolinska Institutet, with a thesis on demand and capacity imbalances and their impact on patient outcomes. The findings, together with subsequent publications and opinion pieces, have contributed to the national discussion and concrete efforts to reduce crowding and boarding and increase hospital bed capacity in Sweden.

During my PhD, with support from KI Innovations AB, I began building a software company based on my research and operational experience. In 2022, we founded Evidence, which develops and delivers software for forecasting demand and planning capacity, staffing, and scheduling.

Looking ahead, my ambition is to build a research agenda that advances knowledge in healthcare operations management and provides practical support to clinical leaders and operational teams in balancing access, quality, cost, and a sustainable work environment.

My research interests combine methodological development with analyses of implementation and real-world effects in clinical practice, with the aim of strengthening healthcare planning and operations management.

Prediction of patient demand: Develop and evaluate models that forecast patient volumes and case mix at strategic, tactical, and operational levels to support planning.

Acute care flows: Design and evaluate models, systems, and care delivery approaches for acute pathways, including emergency departments, maternity care, and surgical services.

Planned flows and care pathways: Apply and further develop data and process mining to map, visualize, and improve planned patient processes and integrated care pathways.

Sustainable scheduling: Develop, apply, and evaluate scheduling optimization that balances patient needs, cost, and staff attractiveness, with a focus on workload, recovery, fairness, preferences, and reduced administrative burden.

Leadership and governance: Study how leadership, organizational design, governance, and decision structures influence healthcare outcomes and the conditions for effective care delivery.

Implementation and value: Analyze how new ways of working and decision-support systems are implemented in practice and what value they create for patients, staff, and healthcare cost efficiency.

Collaborations with researchers and healthcare organizations are welcomed to advance knowledge and develop solutions for improved planning and management of healthcare together!

I have supervised Master’s thesis projects and supported scholarly projects within specialist physician training, primarily in emergency medicine and healthcare operations management, including within KI’s Master’s Programme in Health Economics, Policy and Management. I also contribute to doctoral education through mentoring and participation in activities such as half-time seminars, and value opportunities to further engage in teaching and academic mentoring.