Walter Osika

This project focuses on health of young individuals transitioning from adolescence to young adulthood within the STARS cohort, a unique study monitoring both mental and physical health on 2283 individuals since the age of 13. Besides that they experienced the COVID-19 pandemic-related stressors, many of them are now also expressing worries related to gang crime, terrorism, war, economic hardships and/or the climate crisis.The main objective of this project is to explore the evolving health status among individuals transitioning from adolescence to young adulthood. The research aims to investigate the complex interplay between physiological and psychosocial dynamics, accentuated by the current turbulent times.By conducting a fourth follow-up (wave 4) of STARS participants now entering young adulthood, and utilizing data from waves 1-3 at ages 13, 15, and 18 years, we seek to answer these questions:1a.  What is the prevalence of mental illness and cardiometabolic risks among young adults? How do factors like motivation, life purpose, and maintaining hope amidst challenges impact health? Data: online surveys, physiological examinations, registers at wave 4. Method: Regression analysis.1b. What challenges do young adults perceive, and how do they navigate the turbulent times marked by polycrisis? Data: qualitative semi-structured interviews at wave 4. Method: qualitative thematic analysis.2. Is it possible to discern unique trajectories of mental health issues, personal and social resources (including coping strategies), health behaviours, and educational achievement throughout adolescence? Data: waves 1-3. Method: group-based trajectory modelling.3. How do socioeconomic and personal adversities in early life shape these paths? Data: registers and from wave 1. Method: Multinominal regression4. Do these trajectories function as mediators/moderators in the associations between early life socioeconomic factors, personal adversities, and the likelihood of mental illness and cardiovascular risks among young adults? Method: regression, mediation, moderation analysis.Recognizing the heightened vulnerability of young adults facing polycrisis, the project contributes not only to the understanding of young adult health but also to providing insights into future health risks and trajectories.The budget prioritizes staff salaries due to their extensive involvement in organizing the fourth follow-up, and costs including laboratory analysis of blood/hair samples.

Research problem and specific questions: Strong evidence links high outdoor temperatures to increased population morbidity, but little is known about the relationship between heat exposure indoors and its impact on health. Presently, no empirically supported recommendations regarding an upper indoor temperature threshold for health exist. Defining such a threshold is important as without this it will be difficult to establish any regulatory requirements that ensure that future buildings are sufficiently resilient to warmer summers. As the frequency of heat waves increases, understanding the sensitivity of different dwellings to outdoor temperature, especially in homes occupied by the elderly, is critical. This collaboration programme between six Swedish Universities aims to establish an evidence-based upper indoor temperature threshold for wellbeing

identify dwelling-specific characteristics that are most likely to increase the risk of heat-related illness, develop a temperature sensitivity regression model for indoor temperature prediction, and visualise area-level heat-vulnerability of the buildings on interactive maps, made available for a wide variety of endusers.Data and method: We aim to collect indoor temperature and humidity data, self-reported information about sleep quality, mental and physical health, as well as dwelling-specific characteristics from 4,000 adults across Sockholm, Malmö, Göteborg and Umeå during summer months, 2024-2027, by using temperature loggers, automatic text messages and electronic questionnaires. Physiological health data will be collected from 400 senior citizens by using Actiheart-5, activity, heart rate and sleep monitors. The associations between indoor temperatures and physical and mental health outcomes will be examined by multiple regression models. A model for prediction of indoor temperatures in different types of buildings will be developed by fitting the collected indoor temperature data to a modified energy balance model.Relevance and utilisation: The sustainability of housing policy includes ensuring access to a healthy indoor environment for all socio-economic groups. Being able to predict how different buildings are likely to respond to high outdoor temperatures is important for mitigating their potentially harmful impact. The present programme aims to fill the gaps in knowledge regarding the role that different building characteristics play in personal temperature exposure and visualise these problems on interactive maps for wider public, which is important for improving heat epidemiology, preparing prevention programmes.Plan for programme realisation: The data will be collected during four summers, after which model development and data analyse will be conducted. Regular research group and stakeholder meetings will be held. Programme costs include salaries for a research assistant and statistician, costs for technical devices, as well as postal costs for the distribution of temperature loggers.

Research problem and specific questions: Strong evidence links high outdoor temperatures to increased population morbidity, but little is known about the relationship between heat exposure indoors and its impact on health. Presently, no empirically supported recommendations regarding an upper indoor temperature threshold for health exist. Defining such a threshold is important as without this it will be difficult to establish any regulatory requirements that ensure that future buildings are sufficiently resilient to warmer summers. As the frequency of heat waves increases, understanding the sensitivity of different dwellings to outdoor temperature, especially in homes occupied by the elderly, is critical. This collaboration programme between six Swedish Universities aims to establish an evidence-based upper indoor temperature threshold for wellbeing

identify dwelling-specific characteristics that are most likely to increase the risk of heat-related illness, develop a temperature sensitivity regression model for indoor temperature prediction, and visualise area-level heat-vulnerability of the buildings on interactive maps, made available for a wide variety of endusers. Data and method: We aim to collect indoor temperature and humidity data, self-reported information about sleep quality, mental and physical health, as well as dwelling-specific characteristics from 4,000 adults across Sockholm, Malmö, Göteborg and Umeå during summer months, 2024-2027, by using temperature loggers, automatic text messages and electronic questionnaires. Physiological health data will be collected from 400 senior citizens by using Actiheart-5, activity, heart rate and sleep monitors. The associations between indoor temperatures and physical and mental health outcomes will be examined by multiple regression models. A model for prediction of indoor temperatures in different types of buildings will be developed by fitting the collected indoor temperature data to a modified energy balance model. Relevance and utilisation: The sustainability of housing policy includes ensuring access to a healthy indoor environment for all socio-economic groups. Being able to predict how different buildings are likely to respond to high outdoor temperatures is important for mitigating their potentially harmful impact. The present programme aims to fill the gaps in knowledge regarding the role that different building characteristics play in personal temperature exposure and visualise these problems on interactive maps for wider public, which is important for improving heat epidemiology, preparing prevention programmes. Plan for programme realisation: The data will be collected during four summers, after which model development and data analyse will be conducted. Regular research group and stakeholder meetings will be held. Programme costs include salaries for a research assistant and statistician, costs for technical devices, as well as postal costs for the distribution of temperature loggers.

Cognitive impairment, decline and dementia are major public health concerns associated with vast individual and societal costs. Understanding and targeting modifiable risk factors is thus vital. Exposure and access to natural environments is suggested to be one such factor, which can also mitigate other risk factors. Research shows exposure to natural spaces improve cognitive performance, mood, reduce mental and physiological stress, and is associated with better mental and cardiometabolic health. Greenspace may also mitigate air pollution(AP) and ambient noise- other suggested risk factors for cognitive health.However, knowledge is lacking about the role of exposure and access to natural spaces for cognitive decline and dementia at the population level.This project thus aims to thoroughly investigate the role of exposure/access to natural spaces for cognitive health, decline and dementia, and in buffering risk factors, at the population level. It also aims to estimate the unique vs combined contributions of natural spaces, air pollution and ambient noise. The studies will be done on two nationwide population cohorts (Sweden and France) with high-quality health data and high resolution environmental exposure data—quantities and qualities of residential "green"(vegetation) and "blue"(open water) space, AP and noise— while considering important mediators and confounders.Specific purposes are to longitudinally investigate the role of exposure and access to natural spaces for:1) cognitive complaints, cognitive functioning and decline, dementia incidence2) cardiometabolic health and it’s role in environment-cognition relationships3) buffering of occupational and SES stressors, gender and age-related risk elevations for outcomes 1-2.And 4) estimate unique and combined effects of natural spaces, AP and ambient noise on health outcomes 1-2.The results will advance knowledge significantly and provide empirical bases for public health and sustainable urban planning policies.

While Sweden is a country with a high capacity to mitigate and adapt to socio-environmental crises and climate change, this capacity has not yet translated into sustainable transformation. Technological solutions exist, Sweden can afford the transition, but still effective action is lacking. Rational arguments for rapid climate action abound. However, cognitive and emotional biases make it difficult to adequately address long-term challenges. They influence how people take decisions and deal with increasing complexity and diversity of democratic and climate governance, i.e., how we analyze and understand data/evidence, negotiate and relate with each other, address conflict and equity issues, communicate risk, and develop solutions. Accordingly, governments across Europe are increasingly addressing such issues through interventions aimed at improving policy-makers cognitive/emotional and relational capacities. At the same time, critical analyses and empirical evidence to understand if and how such interventions impact sustainability outcomes at different scales are lacking. Critical enquiry is urgently needed. Based on a literature review, in-depth case studies and experiments, this project will i) determine the kinds of interventions currently being implemented, ii) understand how such interventions vary with respect to content and impact, and iii) trial interventions to increase their potential to enable sustainability outcomes.

Although technological solutions for transitioning to a fossil-free society exist, and Sweden can afford the transition, effective action is still lacking. What is needed is a different way to address the issue that inspires and attracts the widest possible group of society. The aim of the project is to investigate how citizens in Sweden perceive their future and welfare in a changing climate, and the implications for their sense of agency, responsibility and political engagement in the handling of energy and climate issues. This involves exploring their social values, beliefs, and paradigms, and how associated cultural change can be reflected in political support and a healthy development of a sense of responsibility, motivation and positive involvement. Based on i) a literature review, ii) a national survey, iii) an experiment, iv) four case studies, and v) comparative analyses, the project will draw attention to new forms of citizen involvement in a changing climate and new approaches to support the transition to a fossil-free society that can bridge personal, practical and political spheres of transformation. By linking the fields of energy, climate and sustainability sciences, behavioural economics, psychology and social neuroscience, the approach and outcomes of this project break new ground to fulfil the climate and sustainable development goals that have been set internationally, nationally and in local contexts in Sweden.